Wednesday, October 03, 2007


Once again, Economist offers an excellent analysis about the future status of Kosovo, predicting the effects of choice between the model of full independence and the self-governing status of minimal dependence on Serbia.

Nevertheless, the issues deserves the piece of attention through the prism of economic analysis.

First, assume that Kosovo's long term objective is to seek the course of output growth and good structural environment that could, in turn, boost both: growth and development. As an empirical matter, the correlation between growth and democracy is weakly negative, meaning that the case of full democracy leads to the loss of growth momentum as well as to the widespread increase of bureaucratic and administrative means which deprive the dynamics of growth in a broader perspective.

Second, one of the main engines of prosperity and growth is the country's business and investment environment. Assuming the "catch-up"effects of a country with comparably low GDP per capita, the Kosovo's GDP would streamline the convergence quickly but in a larger sense, the quality of investment environment determines the intensity of investment, since a degree of firm's interest, looking forward to invest in particular segments of the region, would largely depend on the quality of the legal environment, such as the absence of barriers to saving and investment.

The ability to open the enterprise quickly, is also a part of the ability of how quickly job creation could go on. In fact, one of the broadest standpoints on which nearly all economists agree is that job creation is the best way to reduce structural unemployment of a typical post-communist economy in transition. In addition, high quality of the business environment is a thorough indicator of country's openness to trade and investment.

Third, the area in which most of post-communist countries lag is the labor market. In fact, labor is product that is traded in a voluntary agreement between the employee and employer at a certain price called the wage. In this respect, the general equilibrium of labor supply and demand for labor works as in usual cases.

If there is a scare labor supply in concrete area (say IT) compared to derived demand, then the price per unit of labor will go up and so will the employee's return to education and skills derived from labor's human capital. On the other side, if there is an extensive labor supply in concrete area (say sociology) and demand for labor is low, then the return to education will fall, raising the probability of unemployment and causing an incentive to accept the fact of lower return on education in case if labor demand is low in quantity terms.

The price behavior in this exchange partly depends on the willingness of labor supply to embrace lower price than in comparable areas, since an employer is induced and given an opportunity to hire the labor supply at a lower cost than under conditions of high demand and scarce availibility of labor supply.

From labor market aspect, democracy entails a bulk of negative effects that hinder productivity growth and reduce the extent of flexibility of labor market through means of collective bargaining and monopoly power exercised by labor unions. By empirical and practical terms, productivity is the leading engine of growth of standard of living and thus, lower productivity growth correlates with a lower comparable standard of living.

Fourth, the comparison of benefits between multiple option of independence deserves a detailed study and empirical investigation. A macroeconomic quest for this particular choice, is the question of exchange rate risk but this also depends on the ability of the country to have its own independent central bank.

In fact, if the National Bank of Serbia suddenly started to manipulate with exchange rate such as subsidizing the export sector through inflationary policies, and if Kosovo had no central bank, then it could openly feel the negative effects of high inflation. On the other side, if National Bank of Serbia maintains tight anti-inflationary policies, then the absence of costs and risk could benefit Kosovo's economy. But of course, to analyze the effects of multiple options, there must be concrete data to start disseminating and analyzing the effects of political status regarding the future growth and prosperity.

And fifth, as an economist, I think that political mitigation of future status of Kosovo is overhaul. In fact, the systematic efficiency of political status includes the efficiency of institutions protecting the enforcement of private property rights and individual liberties. Nevertheless, individual rights emerge from the private property, i.e. from the ability to manage private property without external interference.

In fact, the question which country advances in economic and structural terms significantly and competitively, does not depend on whether country is fully democratic or not, but on which country is freer than others in terms of taxation, choice and deregulation, enabling faster and higher growth of output and productivity, and thus creating a comparative advantage.

Read also:
Steffen Ganghof, Phillip Genschel: Taxation and Democracy in the EU (link)
Amleto Cattarin: "Hands off my taxes!": a comparative analysis of direct democracy and taxation, NYU Law School (link)
Kosovo, Economic Profile, European Commission (link)
Capitalism & Freedom: Kosovo, European Hong Kong? (link)
The State of Kosovo's Economy; Perspectives and Development, CEEOL Südosteuropa Mitteilungen, Issue no.3/2005 (link)

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